Here are five things that make this Alberta provincial election one to watch | CBC News

The official Alberta election campaign period kicks off today, ahead of the May 29 election. Here are five things that will make this election one to watch. 

1. It’s too close to call

Political watchers agree, there’s no clear front runner, heading into this election.

The days of Alberta being a one-party province are behind us, said Bill Anderson, vice president at Crestview Strategy. We’re seeing that play out now, with a tight race shaping up between the New Democrats and United Conservatives.

“I think Albertans have a sense that this is going to be a really close one,” said Anderson, who has also worked in conservative politics. “The political landscape, in Alberta over the last 10 years, has undergone a seismic shift.”

Both parties are focusing efforts on the Calgary battleground and the 26 seats there. Anderson said he’s also watching the “Edmonton doughnut” of surban ridings around the capital region. 

Spruce Grove-Stony Plain, Morinville-St. Albert and the two ridings in Sherwood Park are all ones the NDP will try to flip, he said.

Najib Jutt, CEO of political strategy firm Statecraft, said undecided voters could play a big role.

“It’s a tight race and it could come down to one or two seats,” said Jutt, who is also working on the Alberta Green Party campaign.

2. Two former premiers and opposition leaders go head-to-head

Having UCP leader Danielle Smith matchup against NDP leader Rachel Notley creates a unique dynamic. Both women served as premier, both women also served as opposition leader. Both want that premier title back.

We’re also seeing two women leaders, which is a rarity in Canadian politics.

However, Alberta does hold the record for female premiers, said Rajah Maggay, vice-chair of communication at Parity Yeg, a group that encourages women to run for office.

“Alberta has a strong history of female leadership,” Maggay said. “We’ve had three women serve as premier, more than any other province.”

When it comes to how the Smith-Notley match-up might play out, Maggay points out that female politicians often face critiques that their male counterparts do not during the campaign, including more scrutiny overall and harassment on social media.

3. We’re re-imagining health care since the pandemic

The pandemic exposed major vulnerabilities in public services, including health-care, said Parkland Institute executive director Ricardo Acuña. He said voters will be looking for the party that has solutions.

“The weaknesses [in health care] have been developing over the last 30 years, in terms of just-in-time staffing, in terms of not keeping up infrastructure support, those sorts of things, really came out during the pandemic and are causing ongoing challenges,” Acuña said.

Acuña said elections in recent memory have focused on the economy, or debt, or pipelines, as the major issues. He expects that to change.

“It’s been a while since we’ve had a health care election,” he said.

4. Parties can spend more to get your vote

Parties can spend over one million dollars more in this campaign, than they did in 2019.

This is because the NDP imposed a $2 million cap on election spending in 2018. The UCP overturned that cap in 2021, as part of the changes in its Election Statutes Amendment Act.

The new rules cap election spending based on the number of eligible voters in Alberta, multiplied by $1.16. That puts spending just over $3.2 million for this election.

This means there will be significantly more money for parties to spend on all kinds of advertising and messaging, ahead of election day.

5. A period of record-high inflation is slowly easing

Everyday life is more expensive now than it was during the last provincial election. 

Though inflation is finally slowing, according to the latest Statistics Canada data, it remains high. Overall inflation increased 8.7 per cent in the last 18 months, and grocery prices are still up nearly 10 per cent, year over year, according to the most recent data.

Anderson predicted voters will have this cost-of-living crisis top of mind.

“I haven’t totally figured out the ballot question yet, but it’s going to have something to do with the intersection of affordability and economic transition,” Anderson said.

Jutt also flagged affordability as a defining theme. He said voters will support the party that will put money in their pockets.

“People right now are really hurting,” Jutt said. “Yes, we have a surplus and apparently the jobs are growing, but people aren’t feeling that. People feel like they aren’t getting ahead.”