Still ‘too soon to tell’ if Omicron less severe than other COVID-19 variants: expert

It’s still “too soon to tell” whether the new Omicron variant of COVID-19 causes less serious illness than others, an infectious diseases expert says.

“We all really hope it is,” Dr. Isaac Bogoch, a faculty member at the University of Toronto, told CTV’s Your Morning on Tuesday.

“There’s some promising data pointing in that direction,” he continued. “There’s also some data pointing away from that direction as well — unfortunately it’s too soon to tell.”

One of the “bigger issues,” Bogoch said, is whether the Omicron variant is more transmissible, and if it has the ability to “chip away” at the immunity individuals have either from a prior COVID-19 infection or vaccination.

“The vaccines still work,” he said. “Three doses are better than two — but two doses still work to prevent more significant illness as well.”

On Monday the head of the World Health Organization (WHO) said the Omicron variant is causing infections in people who have already been vaccinated, and those who have previously recovered from COVID-19.

WHO chief scientist Soumya Swaminathan said the Omicron is also spreading faster than the Delta variant.

Bogoch said when it comes to stemming the spread of the Omicron variant, the approach is the same as what we’ve been doing all pandemic long.

Bogoch said anyone eligible for a first, second or third dose of a COVID-19 vaccine should get one, and individuals should continue to wear “high quality, very tight-fitting” masks.

He said rapid tests are also a “helpful” tool, and an added layer of protection if planning to attend a holiday gathering.

Bogoch said better ventilated rooms and smaller gatherings are also key.

“It’s the usual, it’s exactly what we’ve been doing,” he said. “But we really got to tighten this up because we have a lot of cases right now in Canada.

Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – reported 3,783 new COVID-19 cases on Monday. Among the current cases in the province, 284 people were hospitalized with the virus, with 164 in an intensive care unit (ICU).

Bogoch said hospitalizations, ICU stays, and deaths are “lagging indicators” of the pandemic.

“Even if this is a less severe variant, we still have to be careful,” he explained. “There’s that old adage, where even if a small percentage of people require hospitalization or ICU care, a small percentage of a massive number of people getting infected will still end up being a lot of people in hospital — a lot of people that need ICU care.”

Bogoch said this is why provinces are “really bracing.”

“Sometimes it’s just a matter of time,” he said. “Obviously you can’t ignore the significant level of community protection we have, so many people in Canada have been vaccinated with one, two, and increasingly three doses of a vaccine.”

By now, Bogoch said many people have also had COVID-19 and have recovered.

“We can’t ignore the protective effect that that has,” he explained. “Is it going to be enough? I don’t think anyone can look you in the eye and tell you with a straight face yes or no. We all hope it is, but hope is not the strategy.”

Bogoch said you “have to be prepared.”

“You have to have all hands on deck in case there really is a growing number of hospitalizations and people that require ICU care, and that’s what you’re seeing now,” he said. “The hospitals bracing for a large number of people that will be coming in. That’s why you see the rapidity of many of these vaccine responses as well.”

On Monday, Quebec moved to close bars, gyms and restaurants and officials said anyone who can work from home must do so.

Meanwhile, both Ontario and British Columbia added restrictions on holiday gathering sizes and have limited indoor capacity for businesses.