Who won the federal byelections? Your electoral roundup

OTTAWA –

Voters in four federal ridings had their say on Monday, voting in new members of Parliament in the ridings of Notre-Dame-de-Grâce–Westmount, Que., Oxford, Ont., Portage–Lisgar, Man., and Winnipeg South Centre, Man.

While overall the seat count in the House of Commons isn’t changing, seeing the Liberals hold on to the two ridings they won in 2021 and the Conservatives keeping the two others, the margins of victory offer some interesting indications about Canadians’ shifting support.

Here’s a riding-by-riding breakdown of Monday’s results:

NOTRE-DAME-DE-GRACE–WESTMOUNT

Who won? Liberal Anna Gainey

What was formerly Liberal Marc Garneau’s seat, now belongs to past Liberal Party president Gainey.

After having long list of high-profile Liberal ministers and party members come to help her knock on doors and rally supporters, including Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Gainey held the Liberal stronghold handily and is now being looked at as a potential cabinet contender.

Asked Tuesday if he’s making plans to rejig his front bench this summer, Trudeau said he had nothing to announce, yet. 

Gainey secured 50.8 per cent of the vote, compared to Garneau’s 53.8 per cent in 2021. Potentially playing a factor in the results in this riding was an issue that arose on the campaign trail: the federal government’s handling of language law changes and Anglophone minority rights.

Thanking her team and volunteers for contributing to her victory, Gainey called it “an absolute privilege” to represent her riding in Ottawa, and said she was “excited to get to work.  

Green Party co-leader Jonathan Pedneault was one of the candidates running against Gainey, trying to secure a third seat in the House for his party, but placed fourth. Though, he did boost the party’s support in the riding up from 2021, outpacing the Bloc Quebecois candidate.

How the candidates placed:

• 
  Liberal Anna Gainey – 50.8 per cent of the vote
• 
  New Democrat Jean-Francois Filion – 13.8 per cent of the vote
• 
  Conservative Mathew Kaminski – 13.5 per cent of the vote
• 
  Green Jonathan Pedneault – 13.3 per cent of the vote
• 
  Bloc Quebecois Laurence Massey – 4.5 per cent of the vote

With all 204 polls reported in this riding, preliminary voter turnout for this byelection was 29.7 per cent.

OXFORD

Who won? Conservative Arpan Khanna

Small business owner and lawyer Arpan Khanna, who helped Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre win the leadership last year, pulled of a win after a race that had its fair share of party infighting over who the local candidate would be, and a popular Liberal candidate.

With 266 of 267 polls reporting in this riding, Khanna won with 43 per cent of the vote, compared to former Conservative MP Dave MacKenzie’s 47 per cent win in 2021.

MacKenzie had hoped to see his daughter run to replace him in this southwestern Ontario riding, but after that didn’t pan out, he said that even after representing the riding as a Conservative for close to 20 years, he’d be voting for Liberal David Hilderley.

Hilderley came into the race with a lengthy community record, and came out of it in second place, but narrowed the Conservative margin of victory considerably from 2021, seeing the Liberals’ vote share increase from 20.5 per cent in the last election, to 36.2 per cent.

Speaking to supporters on Monday night, Khanna reflected on the race as a “long journey” and said that he knew it “wasn’t going to be easy,” but what was clear on doorsteps is that Canadians are struggling with the rising cost of living.

“We hear you, and I will fight for you every single day,” he said.

Congratulating his new MPs on their wins, Poilievre said that the results show that: “After 8 years of Trudeau, Canadians are ready to stop the inflationary spending, axe the carbon tax & bring home common sense.” 

CTV News political commentator Scott Reid said Tuesday on CTV News Channel that aside from the “internal drama” in this riding, the results here and in the other races offer less insight in terms of the level of Canadians’ satisfaction with the government than byelections may have had they been held in swing ridings. 

How the candidates placed:

• 
  Conservative Arpan Khanna – 43 per cent of the vote
• 
  Liberal David Hilderley – 36.2 per cent of the vote
• 
  New Democrat Cody Groat – 10.5 per cent of the vote
• 
  Christian Heritage Party John Markus – 4.4. per cent of the vote
• 
  People’s Party Wendy Martin – 3.3 per cent of the vote
• 
  Green Cheryle Baker – 2.2 per cent of the vote

With 266 of 267 polls reporting, preliminary voter turnout for this riding was 38.2 per cent.

WINNIPEG SOUTH CENTRE

Who won? Liberal Ben Carr

Following the death of former cabinet minister Jim Carr, all eyes in this riding were on his son, Ben Carr, who has now succeeded in keeping the seat in the family. With a significant runway to prepare and the heightened personal touch to this race, Carr secured a larger percentage of the votes than his dad did in 2021, while the Conservative support dipped slightly. 

Carr, a former strategy firm VP, school teacher, and political staffer, was among 48 candidates listed on the ballot in his riding on Monday night, the largest number of candidates in Canadian election history. This was the result of a movement to place dozens of independent candidates on the ballot in protest over the Liberals’ broken electoral reform promise. 

Vowing to “work hard, listen, build bridges, and approach this important responsibility with the utmost integrity,” Carr thanked his political opponents as well, for their dedication to wanting to serve their community.  

How the candidates placed:

• 
  Liberal Ben Carr – 55.5 per cent of the vote
• 
  Conservative Damir Stipanovic – 23.7 per cent of the vote
• 
  New Democrat Julia Riddell – 14.5 per cent of the vote
• 
  Green Douglas Hemmerling – 2.7 per cent of the vote
• 
  People’s Party Tylor Baer – 1.3 per cent of the vote

With all 198 polls reported in this riding, preliminary voter turnout was 36.6 per cent.

PORTAGE-LISGAR

Who won? Conservative Branden Leslie

After an intense campaign seeing both an online and in-riding war of words between the Conservatives and People’s Party of Canada (PPC) leader Maxime “Max” Bernier, Conservative Branden Leslie came out on top, handily.

After interim Conservative leader Candice Bergen stepped down, opening up this true-blue stronghold, Bernier pounced and put his hat in the ring, proceeding to push a series of U.S.-style socially conservative and conspiratorial policies. Meanwhile, Leslie tried to use the former progressive Conservative’s record against him, arguing that a vote for the PPC leader was essentially a vote for Trudeau. 

In the end, self-described farm kid and former Conservative campaign manager Leslie secured 64.9 per cent of the vote with 247 of 248 polls reporting, up from Bergen’s 52.5 per cent in 2021. Bernier placed second, but the PPC support dipped from 2021’s 21.6 per cent of the vote, to 17.2 per cent on Monday.

“I can’t tell you how good it feels to be here representing my hometown,” Leslie said during a victory speech on Monday night. “It is an overwhelming feeling of pride and a humbling experience.”

Asked Tuesday if Bernier’s big loss spells the end of the road for him politically, Reid said no, though so far the way Conservatives have positioned themselves under Poilievre is “eating Max Bernier’s lunch.”

“Max Bernier is not going to go away… He’ll continue to be there, he’ll run candidates in the next election. The real calculation for the Conservatives is going to be more or less unchanged: Will there be three, four or five per cent of people who will vote for the PPC in key ridings? And might that be the difference in a handful of ridings? That’s the prospect they have to still continue to worry about,” Reid said. 

How the candidates placed:

• 
  Conservative Branden Leslie – 64.9 per cent of the vote
• 
  People’s Party Max Bernier – 17.2 per cent of the vote
• 
  Liberal Kerry Smith – 8.5 per cent of the vote
• 
  New Democrat Lisa Tessier-Burch – 7.1 per cent of the vote
• 
  Green Nicolas Geddert – 2.2 per cent of the vote

With 247 of 248 polls reporting, preliminary voter turnout for this riding was 45.1 per cent.

Reacting to the NDP’s showing across the country, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said he wasn’t reading much into the outcomes, because of the low voter turnout.

“In byelections, particularly for New Democrats, with the status-quo parties… they benefit from low turnout. New Democrats need a good turnout for our vote to come out. So, with low voter turnout, it doesn’t really say much to us about where we’re at,” Singh said.

In the 2021 general election, voter turnout was 62 per cent. 

With files from CTV News Montreal, CTV News London, and CTV News Winnipeg